Sideline Today

Fantasy Golf Insider: 9 players to target at the BMW Championship

A field of 69 returns to Crooked Stick Golf Club for the first time since 2012. The BMW Championship is the third of four legs in the FedExCup Playoffs, led by Patrick Reed with a total of 3,975 points. Deutsche Bank Championship winner Rory McIlroy is ranked fourth with 3,115 points.

Twenty-nine players from the 2012 tournament will be in attendance this week, including Dustin Johnson and Adam Scott. They tied for sixth last time around and are currently ranked third and fifth, respectively.

The top-30 golfers after this week will advance to the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club in two weeks.

Here’s a look at the past three BMW Championship leaderboards:

2013 2014 2015
1. Zach Johnson (-16) 1. Billy Horschel (-14) 1. Jason Day (-22)
2. Nick Watney 2. Bubba Watson 2. Daniel Berger
3. Jim Furyk 3. Morgan Hoffmann 3. Scott Piercy

Per FantasyInsiders, the key stats for Crooked Stick GC in Carmel, IN, are Driving Distance (DD), Par 5 Scoring (P5S), ​Proximity: Approaches 200+ Yards (PROX), Birdie or Better Percentage (BoB). These stats have been strengths of past winners and need to be used in combination with recent form and course history when assembling lineups.

Top Tier, Top Dollar, Top Results

Rory McIlroy

The 2012 BMW Championship winner returns to Crooked Stick the same way he entered four years ago; on the heels of a victory at the Deutsche Bank Championship. After struggling with his putting for most of the season, McIlroy gained 1.325 strokes per round on the field last weekend. His switch back to a Scotty Cameron flat stick already seems to be paying dividends.

Along with the improved putting, McIlroy ranks first on tour in both P5S and BoB, with ranks of fourth in PROX and 10th in DD. He has struggled with consistency this year but the small field allows owners to pay up for his tier-topping salary.

Adam Scott

Scott’s reasonable salary allows him to be paired with McIlroy or any of the other golfers priced higher than him. He ranks first in PROX, ninth in BoB, 10th in P5S and 14th in DD. He finished fourth in each of the first two FedExCup Playoff events, and he posted a T6 at this event in 2012.

Ryan Moore

While nearly all members of the top tier have a legitimate chance to win this tournament, Moore has the best combination of form and salary. He’s not a long hitter, but he does rank eighth in PROX and 56th in BoB. He also ranks in the top third of the field in fantasy points per week.

He placed 10th at Crooked Stick in 2012 as well as inside the top 10 in each of the first two playoff events. He has made nine consecutive cuts, including a victory at the John Deere Classic.

Best Value With a Chance

Justin Thomas

Thomas missed his second cut in the past three weeks last weekend but it was just his sixth missed cut of the season. He also picked up a T10 at The Barclays, so he continues displaying perfect GPP style. He is well suited to this course, ranking seventh in PROX, 24th in DD and P5S, and 36th in BoB.

He is in Thursday’s fifth-last tee time. He ranks 32nd in Late Scoring Average on the season, averaging 70.33 strokes. In combination with his long driving and his good scoring on Par 5s, Thomas ranks fifth in greens hit percentage when going for the green. His length will be a big advantage, especially in combination with his proximity from a distance.

Zach Johnson

Well known for being a shorter hitter, a lack of distance didn’t hurt Johnson in 2012. He finished 12th last time the BMW Championship was held at Crooked Stick. Despite lacking distance, Johnson ranks 35th in PROX from the selected distance.

Johnson drew a significant advantage with the scheduled tee times. With 41 early rounds played this season Johnson ranks ninth with a scoring average of 69.68. His most recent top 20 finish came at The Open, but his dropping price has reflected this. He has the ability to go low at any time, as he ranks 28th in Scoring Average.

Hudson Swafford

Swafford finished T15 this past weekend, vaulting him from 82nd to 61st in the FedExCup standings. He’ll need to top his previous finish in order to advance to the Tour Championship, but a remotely similar placing would allow him to return significant value on a bargain price.

He has a top-30 rank in each of the key stats, led by a ranking of eighth in Driving Distance.

If Everything Goes Right

Charles Howell III

While PROX has not been a strength of Howell III’s game – he ranks 122nd – he also sits seventh in P5S, 16th in DD, and 21st in BoB. He missed the cut two weeks ago at The Barclays, but he finished T24 last week. He carded 19 birdies, 11 bogeys and one double bogey. His 68.3 fantasy points per week rank just outside the top 10 in the field.

Smylie Kaufman

Kaufman sits just three spots outside the top 30 in the FedExCup standings, needing a fairly impressive finish to advance to the Tour Championship. He ended a run of four straight missed cuts last week, finishing T24 at 6 under. He opened with three rounds in the 60s before a Sunday implosion of 76.

His form has plummeted in the second half of the season, but he still ranks 33rd in DD, 36th in P5S, and 25th in BoB. The Rookie of the Year candidate will be looking to follow in the footsteps of Daniel Berger, who used a runner-up finish in 2015 to vault into the final tournament of the season.

Charley Hoffman

The winner of this year’s Valero Texas Open is priced just above the bottom 10 in the field. He has had consistent form all season, making 19 of 25 cuts. He did miss last week’s cut, just his second since mid-May.

Hoffman ranks 34th in PROX and 39th in DD. One of the 29 golfers to play here in 2012, he finished 54th his first time around. A replicated finish would easily return value, especially with low ownership.

Source link

482 total views, 1 views today